Fri, 01 Jul 2022

Northern Ireland Economic Output Statistics

Northern Ireland Executive
16 Jun 2022, 21 GMT+10

The economic output statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (NISRA).

Economic output statistics

Commentary

  • Output in the services sector increased by 0.7% in real terms over the first quarter of 2022, and by 12.4% over the year.
  • Production sector output increased by 0.6% over the first quarter of 2022 and by 5.6% over the year.
  • Retail output in NI saw a quarterly increase of 2.6% in Quarter 1 2022 and an increase of 7.0% over the year.
  • When comparing current output with the pre-Coronavirus pandemic levels seen in Quarter 4 2019, Northern Ireland production output is 5.2% above its pre-pandemic level and Northern Ireland service output is 4.9% above its pre-pandemic level. In contrast, Northern Ireland Retail output remains 1.0% below the pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019.
  • NI services output is at a series high, outperforming the previous series high shown in the revised Quarter 4 2021 estimate.

Services Sector Output

  • The NI IOS increased by 0.7% over the quarter, 12.4% over the year and by 13.9% on a rolling four quarters basis. The UK IOS reported an increase of 0.4% over the quarter and 9.9% over the year.
  • NI services output in Quarter 1 2022 is at a series high, outperforming the previous series high shown in the revised Quarter 4 2021 estimate.
  • NI services output is now 4.9% above the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019 while UK Service output is now 1.4% above its pre-pandemic level. 
  • The 0.7% quarterly increase in NI services output reflected increases in three of the four subsectors, with increases in the Transport, storage, information and communications sector (3.4%); Other services sector (0.5%); and in the Business services and finance sector (0.3%); while the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector showed a decrease (1.3%).
  • The 12.4% annual increase in NI services output was caused by increases in all four subsectors, with increases in the Other services sector (40.4%); in the Transport, storage, information and communications sector (14.6%); in the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector (10.3%); and in the Business services and finance sector (7.0%). Note that in Quarter 1 2021 many restrictions on businesses due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic were still in place.

Production Sector Output

  • The NI IOP increased by 0.6% over the quarter (January - March) and by 5.6% over the year.
  • The UK IOP reported increases of 1.1% over the quarter and 2.0% over the year.
  • The NI IOP is 5.2% above the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019, while the UK remains 1.8% below its Quarter 4 2019 level.
  • The quarterly increase in NI production output of 0.6% has been driven by increases in three of the four main sectors: Manufacturing (0.8%); Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (0.9%) and Water supply, sewerage and waste management (Inc. recycling) (13.1%). This was partially offset by a decrease in Mining and quarrying (4.6%).
  • The quarterly increase in Manufacturing output (0.8%) was driven by increases in three of the six main subsectors: Food products, beverages and tobacco (4.3%); Engineering and allied industries (2.4%) and Manufacture of textiles, leather and related products (2.0%). These increases were partially offset by decreases in the Manufacture of chemical and pharmaceutical products (12.9%); Total other manufacturing (1.7%) and Basic metals and fabricated metal products (0.6%) subsectors.
  • Over the year the increase in Manufacturing (2.1%) was driven by increases in three of the six main subsectors: Manufacture of textiles, leather and related products (12.5%); Food products, beverages and tobacco (7.3%) and Engineering and allied industries (3.5%). These increases were partially offset by decreases in the Manufacture of chemical and pharmaceutical products (6.7%); Basic metals and fabricated metal products (3.1%) and Total other manufacturing (0.8%) subsectors.
  • Looking at the longer term trend, when the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters output in the NI production sector increased by 9.8%, with the UK reporting an increase of 6.0%. Note that the large increase on the rolling quarter measure is impacted by the notable lows in 2020.

Retail Sector Output

  • Retail output in NI saw a quarterly increase of 2.6% in Quarter 1 2022 and an increase of 7.0% over the year.
  • GB RSI output experienced a decrease of 0.9% over the quarter and an increase of 5.9% over the year.
  • NI RSI output in Quarter 1 2022 is 3.5% below the series high seen in Quarter 4 2018 and 7.0% higher than the series low (Quarter 1 2021).
  • NI RSI output remains 1.0% below the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019 while GB RSI output is now 2.0% above its Quarter 4 2019 level.
  • The retail sales sector refers to SIC 47 (Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles) and is a subset of the Index of Services (IOS).

Upcoming Releases

  • The NI Composite Economic Index and Quarterly Construction Enquiry are scheduled for publication on 7 July 2022.
  • The next Labour Market Report will be published on 19 July 2022.
  • The Index of Production, Index of Services and Retail Sales Index reports for Quarter 2 2022 will be published on 15 September 2022.

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