Mon, 06 Feb 2023

Northern Ireland Economic Output Statistics

Northern Ireland Executive
15 Dec 2022, 22 GMT+10

The economic output statistics were published today by the Northern Ireland Statistics & Research Agency (NISRA).

Economic output statistics

Commentary

  • Output in the services sector increased by 0.1% in real terms over the third quarter of 2022 and increased by 0.4% over the year.

  • Production sector output increased by 0.5% over the third quarter of 2022 and by 1.9% over the year.

  • Retail output in NI saw a quarterly decrease of 1.7% in Quarter 3 2022 and a decrease of 5.3% over the year.

  • When comparing current output with the pre-Coronavirus pandemic levels seen in Quarter 4 2019, Northern Ireland production output is 5.6% above its pre-pandemic level and Northern Ireland service output is 4.8% above its pre-pandemic level. In contrast, Northern Ireland Retail output remains 6.2% below the pre-pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019.

Services Sector Output

  • The NI IOS increased by 0.1% over the quarter and by 0.4% over the year.  The UK IOS remained unchanged over the quarter and increased by 3.3% over the year.

  • NI services output in Quarter 3 2022 is 0.3% below the series high shown in the revised Quarter 1 2022 estimate.

  • NI services output is now 4.8% above the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019 while UK Service output is 0.9% below its pre-pandemic level. 

  • The 0.1% quarterly increase in NI services output was driven by increases in three of the four subsectors: the Business services and finance sector (1.6%), the Other services sector (2.9%) and the Transport, storage, information and communications sector (3.5%). These increases were partially offset by a decrease in the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector (0.3%).

  • The 0.4% increase seen in NI services output over the year was driven by increases in three of the four subsectors, with increases in the Business services and finance sector (4.5%); the Other services sector (16.3%); and the Transport, storage, information and communications sector (12.8%). These increases were partially offset by a decrease in the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector (4.9%). Note that in Quarter 3 2021 some restrictions on businesses due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic were still in place.

  • Looking at the longer term trend, when the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters, NI services output increased by 6.2%. This was driven by all four subsectors, with increases in the Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles; accommodation and food service sector (2.2%); the Business services and finance sector (8.1%); the Other services sector (25.7%); and the Transport, storage, information and communications sector (12.4%).  Note that the large increase on the rolling quarter measure is impacted by the notable lows in 2020.

Production Sector Output

  • The NI IOP increased by 0.5% over the quarter (July - September) and by 1.9% over the year.

  • The UK IOP reported decreases of 1.6% over the quarter and 3.4% over the year.

  • The NI IOP is 5.6% above the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019, while the UK is 3.6% above its Quarter 4 2019 level.

  • The quarterly increase in NI production output of 0.5% was driven by an increase in Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply (5.8%). This was offset by decreases in Manufacturing (0.1%) and Water supply, sewerage and waste management (Inc. recycling) (4.8%). There has been no change over the quarter in the Mining and quarrying sector (0.0%).

  • The quarterly decrease in Manufacturing output (0.1%) was driven by decreases in four of the six main subsectors: Manufacture of chemical and pharmaceutical products (9.5%); Food products, beverages and tobacco (4.0%); Manufacture of textiles, leather and related products (3.9%) and Total other manufacturing (2.5%). These decreases are partially offset by increases in the Engineering and allied industries (6.8%) and Basic metals and fabricated metal products (3.8%) subsectors.

  • Over the year the increase in Manufacturing (1.8%) was driven by increases in three of the six main subsectors: Engineering and allied industries (17.1%); Food products, beverages and tobacco (6.5%) and Manufacture of textiles, leather and related products (3.0%). These increases were partially offset by decreases in Manufacture of chemical and pharmaceutical products (31.6%); Total other manufacturing (2.9%) and Basic metals and fabricated metal products (2.7%) subsectors.

  • Looking at the longer term trend, when the most recent four quarters are compared to the previous four quarters output in the NI production sector increased by 3.6%, with the UK reporting a decrease of 2.2%. Note that the large increase on the rolling quarter measure is impacted by the notable lows in 2020.

Retail Sector Output

  • Retail output in NI saw a quarterly decrease of 1.7% in Quarter 3 2022 and a decrease of 5.3% over the year.

  • GB RSI output experienced a decrease of 2.0% over the quarter and a decrease of 5.2% over the year.

  • NI RSI output in Quarter 3 2022 is 8.8% below the series high seen in Quarter 3 2020 and 1.2% higher than the series low (Quarter 1 2021).

  • NI RSI output remains 6.2% below the pre-Coronavirus pandemic level seen in Quarter 4 2019 while GB RSI output is 12.8% below its Quarter 4 2019 level.

  • The retail sales sector refers to SIC 47 (Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles) and is a subset of the Index of Services (IOS).

Upcoming Releases

  • The NI Composite Economic Index and Quarterly Construction Enquiry are scheduled for publication on 12th January 2023.
  • The next Labour Market Report will be published on 17th January 2023.
  • The Index of Production, Index of Services and Retail Sales Index reports for Quarter 4 2022 will be published on 16th March 2023.

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